Michelle Grattan filed her Friday column on 10 July with the line the government does not want anyone to notice. Australia is one of eleven developed countries where the real minimum wage has fallen between April 2025 and April 2026. Deloitte Access Economics has cut its 2026 to 27 growth forecast to less than two per cent for two consecutive years. IMF projections have GDP at 1.9 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent next year. Per capita GDP went backwards in the March 2025 quarter and again in the March 2026 quarter and was flat in September 2025. On a per person basis the average Australian is now poorer than the average Australian was fifteen months ago and getting poorer.

The Prime Minister's response, according to Grattan, is a speech next week on artificial intelligence. The speech is being briefed as the moment of prime ministerial engagement. It is being sold as broad picture rather than nitty gritty. It is being described inside the office as a signal to the country that the government is on top of the productivity crisis.

The country is not on top of it. Andrew Charlton, the AI ambassador of the ministry, is telling colleagues data centres are the accelerant under productivity gains. That is the argument being run. That is the pitch. The pitch is that a foreign hyperscaler will build a $15 billion facility in South Australia, plug in 1.4 gigawatts of demand, and Anthony Albanese will get to say productivity is back on the agenda.

Tim Ayres is playing the shop steward. Ayres is quoted by Grattan saying unions should be "at the top table" of the AI rollout. That means every hire, every model deployment, every workflow change will be run past the Australian Council of Trade Unions before the country's second largest bank ships a productivity gain. Ed Husic wants the National AI Plan more prescriptive. Amanda Rishworth is warning of copyright breaches for the music industry. Michelle Rowland is worrying about data centres. Jim Chalmers is worrying about the polls.

The number Grattan quotes on employment is the point the government's speech will duck. Occupations in the most exposed fifth to generative AI grew by 5.6 per cent between November 2022 and February 2026. Occupations in the least exposed fifth grew by 9.5 per cent. On a like for like basis, employment in the most AI exposed roles is about two per cent lower by February 2026 than it would have been under the pre ChatGPT trend. That is the number the Prime Minister will not read out.

The tell is what Grattan calls "the tech bros to let it rip". That is Albanese's own frame. It is a straw man. Nobody serious is asking for it to rip. The country is asking for a functioning power grid, a planning system that will approve a data centre before 2029, and a Treasurer who will get out of the way. The country is asking for permission to build. What it is being offered is a speech.

Deloitte's forecast of a real income fall of 0.6 per cent this financial year is what Chalmers should be reading. Two of the past five quarters have printed negative per capita growth. The economy is being kept in positive territory by immigration, which the Prime Minister will not touch, and by public sector hiring, which the Prime Minister owns. Business investment is being carried by one line item, data centres, and the industry minister and the Treasurer and the arts minister are all currently arguing about who gets to slow them down.

The speech next week will use the words "productivity" and "innovation" and "responsible" and "guardrails". It will not use the words "planning approvals", "workplace flexibility", or "corporate tax". It will not use the number 1.7 per cent. It will not use the phrase "eleven of eleven". The Prime Minister will finish his speech, the ABC will report it as a landmark, and the country will still be poorer.

Image direction: Wide shot of a half built Sydney data centre at dusk. Concrete tilt panels, exposed transformer bay, a Commonwealth insignia painted crookedly on a hoarding. Bank of stalled cooling units. Aussie flag drooping from a crane arm. Warm gold light, cold blue shadows.