China’s strategy in the western Pacific is rooted in a mix of military assertiveness, economic leverage, and diplomatic influence. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has undergone rapid modernisation, now boasting the world’s largest fleet by ship count. This includes aircraft carriers, advanced submarines, and destroyers capable of long-range operations. These assets are frequently deployed in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and increasingly, near Taiwan.
Beijing has also militarised artificial islands in disputed areas of the South China Sea, installing missile systems, radar facilities, and airstrips. These outposts extend China’s reach and complicate freedom of navigation for other nations, including the United States and Australia. The 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which invalidated China’s expansive maritime claims, has been openly ignored by Beijing.
Beyond military manoeuvres, China uses economic statecraft to influence smaller Pacific nations. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it offers infrastructure loans and development aid—often with opaque terms. In 2022, China signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands, raising alarms in Canberra and Washington about a potential Chinese military presence in the South Pacific.
Diplomatically, China is working to isolate Taiwan and divide regional consensus. It pressures countries to sever ties with Taipei and uses its economic weight to discourage criticism. These tactics are designed to weaken US alliances and create a more favourable environment for Chinese leadership in the region.
The strategic consequences of Chinese dominance in the western Pacific would be profound. If Beijing secures uncontested control over this region, it could restrict access to vital sea lanes, undermine the sovereignty of smaller nations, and erode the rules-based international order that has underpinned regional stability since World War II.
Freedom of navigation could become conditional. Over 60 percent of Australia’s trade passes through the South China Sea. If China were to impose de facto control, it could disrupt commercial shipping, apply economic pressure, or selectively enforce maritime rules to punish political dissent.
US influence would be diminished. The United States has long served as the security guarantor in the Pacific. If its credibility erodes, regional allies like Japan, South Korea, and Australia may be forced to reconsider their strategic postures—potentially leading to arms races or nuclear proliferation.
Smaller Pacific nations could become client states. Countries such as Papua New Guinea, Fiji, and the Solomon Islands are already navigating complex relationships with China. If economic dependence deepens, their ability to act independently in international forums could be compromised, shifting regional norms in Beijing’s favour.
Australia’s strategic depth would shrink. A Chinese military presence in the South Pacific would place hostile forces much closer to Australia’s northern approaches. This would complicate defence planning, strain resources, and potentially require a rethinking of Australia’s “defence of Australia” doctrine.
Strategic recalibration: Australia can no longer rely on geographic isolation as a buffer. The proximity of Chinese influence in the Pacific means Canberra must invest more heavily in defence capabilities, including long-range strike, cyber resilience, and maritime surveillance. The AUKUS agreement, while controversial, reflects this shift.
Diplomatic balancing: Australia faces a delicate task—managing its largest trading partner while reinforcing alliances with the US, Japan, and India. The Albanese government has sought to stabilise relations with Beijing, but this must be weighed against the need to deter coercive behaviour and uphold sovereignty in the Pacific.
Pacific partnerships: Canberra must deepen ties with Pacific Island nations through transparent aid, infrastructure investment, and climate cooperation. Unlike China’s transactional approach, Australia has an opportunity to build long-term trust based on shared values and mutual respect.
Public awareness and resilience: The Australian public must be informed about the stakes involved. Disinformation, cyber interference, and economic coercion are tools Beijing has used elsewhere. A resilient society begins with clear-eyed understanding of the threats and the policies required to address them.
Economic diversification: Reducing reliance on Chinese markets is a long-term necessity. While total decoupling is unrealistic, diversifying trade partners and strengthening domestic industries can reduce vulnerability to future economic pressure.
China’s approach shares elements with historical great power strategies, but with distinctly modern tools. Like the United States after World War II, China is building influence through a mix of military presence and economic integration. However, unlike the post-war US, which promoted multilateral institutions, China often bypasses or undermines them in favour of bilateral deals where it holds the advantage.
Its strategy also echoes Imperial Japan’s pre-WWII ambitions in the Pacific, which sought to establish a “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.” The difference lies in method: China prefers incremental encroachment and legal ambiguity over outright conquest. Yet the end goal—a regional order centred on Beijing—is strikingly similar.
In contrast to the Soviet Union, which relied heavily on ideological export, China’s campaign is pragmatic and adaptive. It uses trade, infrastructure, and technology to entrench influence, while maintaining plausible deniability in its military actions. This makes its rise harder to counter using traditional deterrence models.
Misjudging China’s intentions could leave Australia strategically exposed and diplomatically isolated. If policymakers underestimate the coherence and scope of Beijing’s plans, the country risks being caught off-guard by sudden shifts in regional power. Conversely, overreaction could alienate neighbours and damage economic stability. The challenge is to respond with neither naivety nor panic, but with sober, sustained strategy.
TL;DR: China is actively working to dominate the western Pacific as part of a broader plan to displace the US as the global leader. Its military and economic moves are reshaping the region’s power balance.
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